The 2009 NFL season is still several months off, but now is a good time to take an early look at how the oddsmakers see things shaping up.
Let's start with the Over/Under lines on regular season wins.
There are a few that stick out and may catch the eye of fans. The Miami Dolphins are set at 7 wins. Some may think, "well, they went to the playoffs last year," and jump on the over. On the flip side, some of the so-called experts have tabbed them as one of the teams most likely to disappoint this season. The Dolphins have a first-place schedule to contend with, and let's not forget they get to see a Tom Brady-led New England Patriots club twice.
The Pats enter '09 with an over/under total at 11.5 wins, the highest mark. I think it's a little too high. Sure the return of Brady is the biggest reason, and they did post a winning season in 2008 without him. However, I just have a hunch that they don't go 12-4 or better. Seems like a bit too much to pick the over.
The New York Jets are at an even 7 wins for 2009. For a team that will have either relatively green Kellen Clemens or rookie Mark Sanchez at quarterback, it is much too high. I'm surprised they aren't more in the area of 5.5 wins.
Pegged at 10.5 wins are the defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers. I do like the over there. It's not often I say that on a double-digit total, but the Steelers schedule isn't near as tough on paper as it was last season. And look what they did then. Perhaps they don't have the hunger? Doubtful as they've been fairly resilient during this era.
The Kansas City Chiefs are marked at 6 wins. I have a strong feeling of KC being an under this year. The Chiefs lost future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez in the offseason, and have a first-time head coach in Todd Haley. Their schedule is brutal the first half of the season and they could be buried by the mid-point.
Staying in the AFC West, the Denver Broncos enter 2009 with a line of 7.5 wins. Like them or not, Jay Cutler was a Pro Bowl QB and Mike Shanahan a probable Hall of Fame coach. Their loss has to count for something. I don't expect the Broncos to be very good under another first-time head coach in Josh McDaniels. Taking Cutler's place is former Bear Kyle Orton. Last year, the Broncos were the beneficiaries of a number of narrow wins. On closer inspection, they didn't cover the spread in any of eight home games.
Finally, I'll take a glance at the San Diego Chargers. The Chargers have been a tough team to gauge during the Norv Turner era. If anything, they seem to play well only when they need to. San Diego has a 9.5 over/under total right now. I really feel they are a close-to-sure thing at going over. The schedule is not as tough as last year, and playing in a perceived weak division certainly helps.
That's my quick look at over/under win lines so far. More to come, along with a game-by-game look at the Chargers schedule.
Keywords: San Diego Chargers
